Abstract/Summary

Climate change is causing major sea ice losses, leading to increased light availability across polar marine ecosystems, however the consequences are largely unknown. We quantify how future conditions for sea ice and snow, storm-driven waves, clouds, ozone, air and ocean temperature, and chlorophyll-a will affect seasonal absorption and reflection of light in Arctic seas, alongside growth and survival of fish. Using four CMIP6 model inputs and a spectral radiative transfer model, we predict a 75–160% increase in visible light by 2100 in the Northern Bering, Chukchi, and Barents Seas. We predict increased sunlight and warmer summer waters, with reduced phytoplankton levels, will negatively impact cold-water fish species growth and survival during summer, demonstrated here for polar cod. Asynchrony in prey and light availability, with prolonged periods of warmer waters, will reduce polar cod survival in the fall and restrict habitats in these regions after 2060. Warmer-water species like walleye pollock and Atlantic cod will be less impacted but may struggle at high latitudes during the polar night. Ocean warming coupled with increased light availability will accelerate changes in Arctic ecosystems, compromising the growth and survival of Arctic species in transitional zones and facilitating the northward expansion of boreal species.