Future trends in upper-atmospheric shear instability from climate change

de Medeiros, J. and Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 (2025) Future trends in upper-atmospheric shear instability from climate change. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 82 (11). pp. 2375-2392. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-24-0283.1

Abstract/Summary

Understanding how jet streams respond to a warming climate is crucial for anticipating changes in atmospheric circulation and their broader impacts. Previous studies have highlighted the influence of anthropogenic warming on the meridional temperature gradient, which directly affects jet stream dynamics and variability. This study investigates projected trends in upper-level jet stream shear instability under future climate change scenarios using CMIP6 multi-model simulations. Building on previous findings linking anthropogenic warming to strengthened meridional temperature gradients, we analyse annual means of zonal wind speed, vertical wind shear, and stratification profiles from 2015 to 2100 globally. Results show strengthened multi-model annual-mean vertical shear at 250 hPa, particularly in high-emission scenarios, with trends ranging from 0.04 to 0.11 m s −1 (100 hPa) −1 decade −1 depending on the scenario and region, equivalent to a total relative increase of 16–27% over 86 years. Decreasing trends are observed in the annual-mean Brunt-Väisälä frequency (N 2 ) at 250 hPa, with multi-model ensemble mean values across regions ranging from −0.018 to −0.040 × 10 −4 s −2 decade −1 for lower and higher emissions scenarios, respectively, equating to a total relative decrease of 10–20%. Similarly, the annual-mean Richardson number (Ri) shows decreasing trends of −0.014 to −0.050 decade −1 across emissions scenarios and regions, which is a total relative decrease of 38–47%. These findings suggest more favourable conditions for the generation of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT), posing critical challenges for aviation safety and operations in a warming climate.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/124043
Identification Number/DOI	10.1175/JAS-D-24-0283.1
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Meteorological Society
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item