Abstract/Summary

Accurate sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts are critical for mitigating extreme weather impacts and supporting development in West Africa. This study evaluates real-time ECMWF S2S rainfall forecasts during the 2020–2021 West African monsoon (March–October) and uses corresponding hindcasts for comparison. We verify forecasts at 1–4 dekads lead against two satellite-based rainfall datasets (TAMSAT and GPM-IMERG) to cover observational uncertainty. The analysis focuses on spatio-temporal monsoon patterns over the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) and Sahel (SAH). The results show that ECMWF-S2S captures key monsoon features. The forecast skill is generally higher over the Sahel than the GoG, and peaks during the main monsoon period (July–August). Notably, forecasts achieve approximately 80% synchronization with observed rainfall-anomaly timing, indicating that roughly 4 out of 5 dekads have correctly predicted wet/dry phases. Probabilistic evaluation shows strong reliability. The debiased ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is high across thresholds, whereas the average ROC AUC (~0.68) indicates moderate discrimination. However, forecasts tend to under-predict very low rains in the GoG and very high rains in the Sahel. Using multiple datasets and robust metrics helps mitigate observational uncertainty. These results, for the first real-time S2S pilot over West Africa, demonstrate that ECMWF rainfall forecasts are skillful and actionable (especially up to 2–3 dekads ahead), providing confidence for early-warning and planning systems in the region.