Abstract/Summary

This thesis examines the impact of São Paulo’s 2016 Transit-Oriented Zoning (TOZ) reform on the residential development process, focusing on developers’ strategic responses in terms of new housing supply and the spatial patterns of redevelopment. The research addresses three interrelated questions: (i) What are the structural characteristics of the housebuilding industry in São Paulo? (ii) What was the impact of the TOZ reform on the levels and characteristics of new housing supply? (iii) How do spatial and regulatory factors shape the geography of redevelopment under the TOZ framework? Guided by critical realism, the thesis employs a multi-method approach, combining descriptive analysis, quasi-experimental techniques, and discrete choice methods to explain the reform's effects and how market structure and spatial variation in development viability mediate these effects. Findings reveal that TOZ significantly boosted housing supply in designated districts, but this expansion was skewed towards compact-unit developments and concentrated in high-income, well-connected areas. Housebuilders adapted to the new regulatory environment by intensifying product segmentation, increasing vertical integration, and prioritising market niches with lower unit sizes. Redevelopment patterns clustered where rent gaps were highest and land assembly was feasible, highlighting the uneven capacity of different neighbourhoods to translate regulatory incentives into built outcomes. Moreover, it is suggested that large firms disproportionately captured TOZ benefits, intensifying land market competition and reinforcing market concentration. These findings suggest that whilst upzoning can stimulate supply, it also produces differentiated outcomes conditioned by developer capacity, location-specific factors, and market segmentation. The study contributes to urban policy by highlighting the need for complementary measures to ensure that zoning reforms align with broader goals of affordability and spatial equity.