Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds

Seelig, T., Wolf, K., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Tesche, M. (2025) Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds. Nature Communications. ISSN 2041-1723 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

Aviation leads to the emission of CO2 but also exerts non-CO2 effects on climate, such as line-shaped condensation trails (contrails) and contrail cirrus that are known to cause warming. However, little is known about the climate effect of contrails that form in already existing cirrus clouds, where conditions for contrail formation are found most often. Here, we infer the local net radiative forcing of around 40,000 embedded contrails by combining aircraft position data with height-resolved cloud observations from spaceborne lidar. Considering the period from 2015 to 2021, we find an annual mean local warming effect of 60 mW m−2. Expanding these findings to the global scale suggests an annual global mean net radiative forcing of embedded contrails on the order of 5 mW m−2. This corresponds to around 10% of the current estimate of the climate impact of line-shaped contrails and suggests that embedded contrails are a non-negligible contributor to aviation’s impact on climate.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/125498
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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