Temperate rainforests in the UK and climate change: a pilot study

Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, (2025) Temperate rainforests in the UK and climate change: a pilot study. Research & Evidence Paper. 3. Report. The Wildlife Trusts, Newark.

Abstract/Summary

Temperate rainforests are globally-rare habitats of which fragments remain in western parts of the UK. They are fundamentally defined by climate, so are potentially exposed to the effects of climate change. This report presents a pilot assessment of the potential effects of climate change on temperate rainforests in the UK. It uses a definition of the climatic suitability for temperate rainforests and a set of seven climate indicators relevant to their sustainability. Climate change impacts through the 21st century are assessed for different levels of global warming ranging from an increase in global average temperatures of just 1.5oC by 2100 to the increases of more than 5oC in emissions pathway RCP8.5. The climate scenarios are based on the UKCP18 climate projections and are applied at a spatial resolution of 12x12km across the UK. The three key conclusions are: (i) risks to the viability of temperate rainforests depend strongly on emissions pathway and, for a given pathway, the range of climate projections used, (ii) the key drivers of climate change-induced risk to temperate rainforests increase across all of the UK apart from northern Scotland, and (iii) envelopes describing climatic suitability for temperate rainforest do not provide a robust means of assessing future climate risks because impacts are very sensitive to the (unknown) upper temperature limit. Whilst the assessment has shown that climate change has the potential to adversely affect temperate rainforest habitats across most of the UK, it has also identified four key uncertainties and knowledge gaps affecting the development of policy towards temperate rainforest restoration. There is a need for (i) better understanding of where temperate rainforests can currently be found, (ii) better understanding of their climatic limits and the key climate drivers, (iii) a more detailed analysis with a wider range of climate projections, (iv) better understanding of how climate change would differentially affect different species in temperate rainforests and therefore rainforest character, and (v) a detailed assessment of how changes in rainforest microclimates are linked to changes in local and regional climate.

Item Type	Report (Report)
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127922
Official URL	https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/about-us/publicatio...
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	The Wildlife Trusts
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