Distinct roles of surface flux changes in driving model spread of dynamic sea-level projections in different regions

Wu, Q. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0686-8922 and Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 (2026) Distinct roles of surface flux changes in driving model spread of dynamic sea-level projections in different regions. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2025MS005364 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

Dynamic sea-level change (ΔDSL) is a key process in shaping the pattern of future sea-level rise. CMIP6 models predict a range of ΔDSL under 1% increase of CO2 per year. We analyse this CMIP6 spread into contributions from: 1) surface flux change (dF) and 2) model sensitivity to it (Φ). Specifically, we force the pre-industrial simulation of an ocean model with space- and time-varying dF diagnosed from different CMIP6 models (one at a time). The CMIP6 spread is thus decomposed into a flux-driven spread and a residual; the latter is linked to model spread of Φ. We improve upon previous studies by: (a) deriving the perturbed forcing ensemble using an ocean-only setup and (b) comparing it with the CMIP6 ensemble for both variance and correlation. This reveals distinct roles of surface forcing in driving the CMIP6 spread in different regions. In the North Pacific, differences in windstress forcing primarily explain the CMIP6 spread, while in the North Atlantic, differences in model sensitivity are more important. For the latter region, although buoyancy forcing drives a ΔDSL spread there, it correlates poorly with the CMIP6 spread. In the Southern Ocean, differences in both surface forcing and model sensitivity are important for explaining the CMIP6 spread. The surface forcing affects the spread along 40{degree sign}S via windstress and the spread around the Antarctic via buoyancy flux.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/128523
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2025MS005364
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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