Molecular clock dating using complex mixture models: applied to ancient symbionts

Wang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7220-7305 and Meade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7095-7711 (2026) Molecular clock dating using complex mixture models: applied to ancient symbionts. Molecular Biology and Evolution, 43 (3). msag039. ISSN 1537-1719 doi: 10.1093/molbev/msag039

Abstract/Summary

Molecular clocks are a fundamental technique in evolutionary biology for establishing the timing and tempo of organismal divergence. However, currently available molecular clock methods, which often rely on simple homogeneous substitution models, can produce inaccurate time estimates, particularly for deep-time or rapidly evolving lineages where substitution heterogeneity and saturation are common. Hereby, we introduce phyloHessian (https://github.com/evolbeginner/phyloHessianWrapper), a Julia-based software to enable the use of complex mixture substitution models in molecular dating. phyloHessian computes the phylogenetic Hessian matrix and integrates it into PAML-MCMCtree's approximate likelihood framework to conduct dating analyses. Simulations mimicking phylogenies at different timescales demonstrate that complex mixture substitution models significantly enhance the accuracy of divergence time and substitution rate estimates in deep-time phylogenies. This pattern remains consistent across a wide range of uncertainties associated with molecular clock analysis. Additionally, mixture models display greater robustness to model and calibration specifications compared to their homogeneous counterparts. Empirical analysis of ancient symbiont lineages Microsporidia and Rickettsiales with different substitution models shows that mixture models, compared to homogeneous models, yield accelerated substitution rates and in some cases significantly different divergence times, leading to a revised understanding of their host association origins. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating complex mixture substitution models for constructing reliable evolutionary timelines and elucidating the evolutionary history of deep-time or fast-evolving lineages.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129527
Identification Number/DOI	10.1093/molbev/msag039
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Life Sciences > School of Biological Sciences > Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Publisher	Oxford University Press
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item