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An evaluation of the performance of UK real estate forecasters

McAllister, P., Newell, G. and Matysiak, G., (2005) An evaluation of the performance of UK real estate forecasters. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 23/05. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp34.

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Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:20979
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.


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