Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variabilityOsprey, S. M. and Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 (2011) Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (15). L15702. ISSN 0094-8276 Full text not archived in this repository. It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048181 Abstract/SummaryExponential spectra are found to characterize variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) for periods less than 36 days. This corresponds to the observed rounding of the autocorrelation function at lags of a few days. The characteristic persistence timescales during winter and summer is found to be ∼5 days for these high frequencies. Beyond periods of 36 days the characteristic decorrelation timescale is ∼20 days during winter and ∼6 days in summer. We conclude that the NAM cannot be described by autoregressive models for high frequencies; the spectra are more consistent with low-order chaos. We also propose that the NAM exhibits regime behaviour, however the nature of this has yet to be identified.
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