The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditionsLockwood, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7397-2172, Owens, M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2061-2453, Barnard, L., Davis, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6411-5649 and Steinhilber, F. (2011) The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, 38. L22105. ISSN 0094-8276
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049811 Abstract/SummaryThe recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.
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