Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations
Pincus, R., Shutts, G., Forbes, R., Arnold, H., Crommelin, D., Descamps, L., Dorrestijn, J., Feddersen, H., Komori, T., Kwasinok, F., McNamara, H., Plant, B.
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. Official URL: http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/refer... Abstract/SummaryOur group considered the desirability of including representations of uncertainty in the development of parameterizations. (By ‘uncertainty’ here we mean the deviation of sub-grid scale fluxes or tendencies in any given model grid box from truth.) We unanimously agreed that the ECWMF should attempt to provide a more physical basis for uncertainty estimates than the very effective but ad hoc methods being used at present. Our discussions identified several issues that will arise.
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