Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower TroposphereSanter, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Gaffen, D. J., Bengtsson, L., Doutriaux, C., Boyle, J. S. , Esch, M., Hnilo, J. J., Jones, P. D., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Taylor, K. E. and Wehner, M. F. (2000) Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere. Science, 287 (5456). pp. 1227-1232. ISSN 0036-8075 Full text not archived in this repository. It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5456.1227 Abstract/SummaryEstimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.
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