Lists
Lists
Clements, M. P. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341
(2006)
Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts.
Empirical Economics, 31 (1).
pp. 49-64.
ISSN 0377-7332
Full text not archived in this repository.
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.
To link to this item DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9
Abstract/Summary
Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Divisions: | Henley Business School > Finance and Accounting |
| ID Code: | 35251 |
| Publisher: | Springer |
University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record