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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

Clements, M. P. (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. European Economic Review, 54 (4). pp. 536-549. ISSN 0014-2921

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003


A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:No Reading authors. Back catalogue items
Henley Business School > ICMA Centre
ID Code:35263
Uncontrolled Keywords:Rationality; Point forecasts; Probability distributions

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