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Clements, M. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341
(2014)
Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation.
International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (1).
pp. 99-117.
ISSN 0169-2070
Full text not archived in this repository.
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.
To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.010
Abstract/Summary
We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Divisions: | Henley Business School > Finance and Accounting |
| ID Code: | 35274 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Subjective density forecasts; First moments; Bayesian learning |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
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