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A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts

Papastamos, D., Matysiak, G. and Stevenson, S., (2014) A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 06/14. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp34.

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We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:36850
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author(s). In some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere, please contact the appropriate author for further details.


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