Accessibility navigation

Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts

Papastamos, D., Mouzakis, F. and Stevenson, S., (2014) Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 07/14. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp34.

Text (Report (Working Paper)) - Published Version
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.


This study examines the rationality and momentum in forecasts for rental, capital value and total returns for the real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. In order to investigate if forecasters are affected by the general economic conditions present at the time of forecast we incorporate into the analysis Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and the Default Spread (DS). The empirical findings show high levels of momentum in the forecasts, with highly persistent forecast errors. The results also indicate that forecasters are affected by adverse conditions. This is consistent with the finding that they tend to exhibit greater forecast error when the property market is underperforming and vice-versa.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:36851
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author(s). In some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere, please contact the appropriate author for further details.


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation