Accessibility navigation

A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

Pearce-Higgins, J. W., Beale, C. M., Oliver, T. H., August, T. A., Carroll, M., Massimino, D., Ockendon, N., Savage, J., Wheatley, C. J., Ausden, M. A., Bradbury, R. B., Duffield, S. J., Macgregor, N. A., McClean, C. J., Morecroft, M. D., Thomas, C. D., Watts, O., Beckmann, B. C., Fox, R., Roy, H. E. , Sutton, P. G., Walker, K. J. and Crick, H. Q. P. (2017) A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa. Biological Conservation, 213 (A). pp. 124-134. ISSN 0006-3207

Text - Accepted Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.06.035


It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion, that climate change could pose for over 3,000 plants and animals that occur in England. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors, was applied to 402 species, of which 35 % were at risk of range loss and 42 % may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit. The balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and increasing uncertainty of the future.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Life Sciences > School of Biological Sciences > Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
ID Code:71437


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation