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The importance of forecasting regional wind power ramping: a case study for the UK

Drew, D. R., Cannon, D. J., Barlow, J. F., Coker, P. J. and Frame, T. (2017) The importance of forecasting regional wind power ramping: a case study for the UK. Renewable Energy, 114. pp. 1201-1208. ISSN 0960-1481

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.07.069


In recent years there has been a significant change in the distribution of wind farms in Great Britain, with a trend towards very large offshore farms clustered together in zones. However, there are concerns these clusters could produce large ramping events on time scales of less than 6 hours as local meteorological phenomena simultaneously impact the production of several farms. This paper presents generation data from the wind farms in the Thames Estuary (the largest cluster in the world) for 2014 and quantifies the high frequency power ramps. Based on a case study of a ramping event which occurred on 3rd November 2014, we show that due to the large capacity of the cluster, a localised ramp can have a significant impact on the cost of balancing the power system on a national level if it is not captured by the forecast of the system operator. The planned construction of larger offshore wind zones will exacerbate this problem. Consequently, there is a need for accurate regional wind power forecasts to minimise the costs of managing the system. This study shows that state-of-the-art high resolution forecast models have capacity to provide valuable information to mitigate this impact.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Energy Research
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Science > School of the Built Environment > Energy and Environmental Engineering group
ID Code:71460


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