Abstract/Summary

Cities have been one of the most important areas of CO2 emissions. It is increasingly important to research the effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions, especially in large emerging and developing economies, due to the indispensable need for understanding the effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions, evaluating carbon reduction tasks and providing the scientific basis for low-carbon urbanization. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China, during the period of 2000–2010, this paper employed data envelopment analysis (DEA) window analysis and a spatial lag panel Tobit model to investigate the effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions efficiency (the ratio of the target CO2 emissions to the actual CO2 emissions). The results show that the average CO2 emissions efficiency was 0.959 in 2010, and CO2 emissions efficiency ranged from 0.816 to 1 and exhibited spatial clustering in the region. The larger potential of CO2 emissions reduction appeared in Zhenjiang and Yangzhou, indicating that more CO2 emissions reduction tasks should be allocated to these two cities. Urbanization has negative effects on improving CO2 emissions efficiency, and there is a U-curve relation between CO2 emissions efficiency and urbanization, indicating that CO2 emissions efficiency decreases at the early stage of urbanization, then increases when urbanization reach a high level. There is spatial spillover effect among the prefecture-level cities, suggesting that different prefecture-level governments should coordinate with each other to improve CO2 emissions efficiency in the whole area. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita also plays a markedly positive role in improving CO2 emissions efficiency. This research highlights the effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions efficiency and the importance of improving CO2 emissions efficiency in developing countries.