Abstract/Summary

Precipitation and circulation patterns of Northern Hemisphere monsoons are investigated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations for mid-Holocene and future climate scenario rcp8.5. Although both climates exhibit Northern Hemisphere warming and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal contrast in boreal summer, changes in the spatial extent and rainfall intensity in future climate are smaller than in mid-Holocene for all Northern Hemisphere monsoons except the Indian monsoon. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming the weaker response of the African, Indian and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid-Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response.