Estimating beta: forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-sectionHollstein, F., Prokopczuk, M. and Wese Simen, C. (2019) Estimating beta: forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-section. Journal of Financial Markets, 44. pp. 91-118. ISSN 1386-4181
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2019.03.001 Abstract/SummaryResearchers and practitioners face many choices when estimating an asset’s sensitivities toward risk factors, i.e., betas. Using the entire U.S. stock universe and a sample period of more than 50 years, we find that a historical estimator based on daily return data with an exponential weighting scheme as well as simple shrinkage adjustments yield the best predictions for future beta. Adjustments for asynchronous trading, macroeconomic conditions, or regression-based combinations, on the other hand, typically yield very high prediction errors and fail to create market-neutral anomaly portfolios. Finally, we document a robust link between stock characteristics and beta predictability.
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