A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures
Horváth, L., Liu, Z., Rice, G. and Wang, S.
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.08.003 Abstract/SummaryWe study forward curves formed from commodity futures prices listed on the Standard and Poor's-Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (S&P GSCI) using recently developed tools in functional time series analysis. Functional tests for stationarity and serial correlation suggest that log-differenced forward curves may be generally considered as stationary and conditionally heteroscedastic sequences of functions. Several functional methods for forecasting forward curves that more accurately reflect the time to expiry of contracts are developed, and we found that these typically outperformed their multivariate counterparts, with the best among them using the method of predictive factors introduced by Kargin and Onatski (2008).
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