Accessibility navigation

Projecting global mean sea-level change using CMIP6 models

Hermans, T. H. J., Gregory, J. M., Palmer, M. D., Ringer, M. A., Katsman, C. A. and Slangen, A. B. A. (2021) Projecting global mean sea-level change using CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (5). e2020GL092064. ISSN 1944-8007

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2020GL092064


The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea‐level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3‐7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea‐level rise. Inter‐model differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS‐based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time‐integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:95974
Publisher:American Geophysical Union


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation