Accessibility navigation

Comparison of the prediction of Indian monsoon low pressure systems by subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models

Deoras, A., Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: and Turner, A. G. ORCID: (2021) Comparison of the prediction of Indian monsoon low pressure systems by subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (3). pp. 859-877. ISSN 0882-8156

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0081.1


This study analyzes the prediction of Indian monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) on an extended time scale of 15 days by models of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Using a feature-tracking algorithm, LPSs are identified in 11 S2S models during a common reforecast period of June–September 1999–2010, and then compared with 290 and 281 LPSs tracked in ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalysis datasets. The results show that all S2S models underestimate the frequency of LPSs. They are able to represent transits, genesis, and lysis of LPSs; however, large biases are observed in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia (HMCR) models. The CMA model exhibits large LPS track position error and the intensity of LPSs is overestimated (underestimated) by most models when verified against ERA-Interim (MERRA-2). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Met Office models have the best ensemble spread–error relationship for the track position and intensity, whereas the HMCR model has the worst. Most S2S models are underdispersive—more so for the intensity than the position. We find the influence of errors in the LPS simulation on the pattern of total precipitation biases in all S2S models. In most models, precipitation biases increase with forecast lead time over most of the monsoon core zone. These results demonstrate the potential for S2S models at simulating LPSs, thereby giving the possibility of improved disaster preparedness and water resources planning.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:97869
Publisher:American Meteorological Society


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation