Minimal impact of recent decline in C4 vegetation abundance on atmospheric carbon isotopic composition

Lavergne, A., Harrison, S. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-1903, Atsawawaranunt, K., Dong, N. and Prentice, I. C. (2026) Minimal impact of recent decline in C4 vegetation abundance on atmospheric carbon isotopic composition. Communications Earth & Environment. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-03102-6 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and land management influence the abundance and distribution of C3 and C4 plants, yet their impact on the global carbon cycle remains uncertain. Here, we use a parsimonious model of C3 and C4 plant distribution, based on optimality principles, combined with a simplified representation of the global carbon cycle, to assess how shifts in plant abundances driven by carbon dioxide and climate affect global gross primary production, land carbon isotope discrimination, and the isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We estimate that the proportion of C4 plants in total biomass declined from about 16% to 12% between 1982 and 2016, despite an increase in the abundance of C4 crops. This decline reflects the reduced competitive advantage of C4 photosynthesis in a carbon dioxide-enriched atmosphere. As a result, global gross primary production rose by approximately 16.5 ± 1.8 petagrams of carbon, and land carbon isotope discrimination increased by 0.017 ± 0.001‰ per year. Accounting for changes in C3 and C4 abundances reduces the difference between observed and modeled trends in atmospheric carbon isotope composition, but does not fully explain the observed decrease, pointing to additional, unaccounted drivers.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127946
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s43247-025-03102-6
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Springer Nature
Publisher Statement	We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply. If this paper is publishing under a Transparent Peer Review model then Peer Review reports will publish with the final article.
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