Millennial-scale fire and climate dynamics in the world’s largest tropical wetland show emerging fire threat to flooded ecosystems

Whitney, B. S., Neves, D. M., Loughlin, N. J. D., D'Apolito, C., Coblinski Tavares, C., Hocking, E. P., Mayle, F. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9208-0519, Power, M. J., Silva, A. and Assine, M. L. (2026) Millennial-scale fire and climate dynamics in the world’s largest tropical wetland show emerging fire threat to flooded ecosystems. Global and Planetary Change. ISSN 1872-6364 doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105318 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

The Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland and a globally significant centre of biodiversity, has been increasingly threatened by fire. The extreme fire season of 2019-20, which caused enormous environmental damage, was linked to drought. However, predicting the future of fire in this region is challenging because of complex interactions among topography, seasonal flooding, and diverse vegetation. Here, we investigate climate-driven changes to fire regimes across five distinctive vegetation types by integrating millennial-scale histories of fire and climate with high-resolution monitoring and remote sensing data from the last two decades. We show that the impacts of climate change on fire activity varies depending on vegetation. In savannahs, fire occurrence is highly correlated to biomass availability, while seasonally dry tropical forest burns only under extreme drought conditions. The seasonally flooded vegetation mosaic is observed to be highly flammable under low rainfall and protracted dry seasons. This study highlights that new fire threats to low-lying flooded vegetation are emerging as human impact and climate change reshape fire regimes in the Pantanal.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127950
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105318
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Elsevier
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