Adaptive sowing helps mitigate future wheat losses globally

Qiao, S., Harrison, S. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-1903, Prentice, I. C., Huang, X., Wang, H. and Yu, C. (2026) Adaptive sowing helps mitigate future wheat losses globally. Earth's Future, 14 (4). e2025EF006554. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: 10.1029/2025EF006554

Abstract/Summary

The escalating effect of climate change on crop yields necessitates urgent adaptation measures. Shifting sowing dates is emerging as one cost-effective adaptation strategy. However, the implications for global wheat yields are unclear. Here, we use an optimality-based model, assuming farmers select sowing dates to maximize yields, to quantify changes in wheat sowing dates and potential grain yields by the 2090s under two climatic scenarios (SSP126 and SSP370). We find that the optimal wheat sowing dates are affected by climate change, primarily driven by temperature norms and warming trends. Global warming prompts earlier sowing (10–20 days) and even a switch from spring to winter wheat in cold areas, while strong warming delays sowing (20–40 days). Scenario modeling shows climate change is projected to negatively impact wheat potential yields under both moderate (−2.4%, SSP126) and strong (−7.8%, SSP370) warming scenarios. Adaptive sowing dates coupled with CO2 fertilization could mitigate these losses and even enhance yields, resulting in a +5.6% increase in potential yield for SSP126 and a +12.4% for SSP370. However, the benefits are not uniformly distributed across regions, with hotter and less developed regions—such as sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America—facing heightened risks of yield decline. Our findings suggest that simple adaptation strategies could help address the challenges posed by climate change for agricultural production and emphasize the need for region-specific adaptation policies to ensure equitable climate resilience in agriculture.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129459
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2025EF006554
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Wiley
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