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Article

Gudoshava, M., Nyinguro, P., Talib, J., Wainwright, C., Mwanthi, A., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, de Andrade, F., Mutemi, J., Gitau, W., Thompson, E., Gacheru, J., Marsham, J., Endris, H. S., Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Segele, Z., Atheru, Z. and Artan, G. (2024) Drivers of sub-seasonal extreme rainfall and their representation in ECMWF forecasts during the Eastern African March-to-May seasons of 2018 to 2020. Meteorological Applications, 31 (5). e70000. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70000

Kolstad, E. W., Parker, D. J., MacLeod, D. A., Wainwright, C. M. and Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 (2024) Beyond the regional average: drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4829

de Andrade, F. M., Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2024) Skill assessment and sources of predictability for the leading modes of sub-seasonal Eastern Africa short rains variability. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07244-9

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Boult, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2024) The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: a case study of the African elephant conservation sector. Meteorological Applications, 31 (2). e2190. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2190

Moudi Pascal, I., Kammalac Jores, T., Talib, J., Appolinaire, V. D., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Christian, N., Romeo-Ledoux, D. T., Fogang Michael, T., Marceline, M., Romeo, S. T., Dione, C., Thompson, E., Salih, A. A. M. and Ngaryamgaye, S. (2023) Strengthening weather forecast dissemination capabilities in Central Africa: case assessment of intense flooding in January 2020. Climate Services, 32. 100411. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100411

Maybee, B., Ward, N., Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Marsham, J. H. (2023) Importance of Madden–Julian Oscillation phase to the interannual variability of East African rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 24 (5). e1148. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1148

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Wainwright, C. M., Nying'uro, P., Quaye, D., Ashong, J., Kiptum, C., Opoku, N. K., Thompson, E. M. and Lamptey, B. (2023) Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana. Weather, 78 (5). pp. 148-153. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4381

Dione, C., Talib, J., Bwaka, A. M., Kamga, A. F., Bita Fouda, A. A., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Latt, A., Thompson, E., Lingani, C., Indasi, V., Adefisan, E. A. and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2022) Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa. Climate Services, 28. 100326. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100326

Gudoshava, M., Wainwright, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Endris, H. S., Segele, Z. T., Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Atheru, Z. and Artan, G. (2022) Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for eastern Africa short rains. International Journal of Climatology, 42 (12). pp. 6562-6578. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7627

Gudoshava, M., Wanzala, M., Thompson, E., Mwesigwa, J., Endris, H. S., Segele, Z., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Kipkogei, O., Mumbua, C., Njoka, W., Baraibar, M., de Andrade, F., Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Atheru, Z. and Artan, G. (2022) Application of real time S2S forecasts over Eastern Africa in the co-production of climate services. Climate Services, 27. 100319. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100319

Dyer, E., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Teferi Taye, M. (2022) July-September rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa: the combined influence of the Mascarene and South Atlantic highs. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06287-0

Parker, D. J., Blyth, A. M., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Dougill, A. J., Bain, C. L., de Coning, E., Diop-Kane, M., Foamouhoue, A. K., Lamptey, B., Ndiaye, O., Ruti, P., Adefisan, E. A., Amekudzi, L. K., Antwi-Agyei, P., Birch, C. E., Cafaro, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8063-4887, Carr, H., Chanzu, B., Clarke, S. J., Coskeran, H., Danuor, S. K., de Andrade, F. M., Diakaria, K., Dione, C., Diop, C. A., Fletcher, J. K., Gaye, A. T., Groves, J. L., Gudoshava, M., Hartley, A. J., Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Ibrahim, I., James, T. D., Lawal, K. A., Marsham, J. H., Mutemi, J. N., Okogbue, E. C., Olaniyan, E., Omoshoto, J. B., Portuphy, J., Roberts, A. J., Schwendike, J., Segele, Z. T., Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Taylor, A. L., Taylor, C. M., Warnaars, T. A., Webster, S., Woodhams, B. J. and Youds, L. (2022) The African SWIFT project: growing science capability to bring about a revolution in weather prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (2). pp. 349-369. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0047.1

Endris, H. S., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Segele, Z. T., Gudoshava, M., Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Artan, G. A. (2021) Evaluation of the skill of monthly precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems over the Greater Horn of Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (4). pp. 1275-1298. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0177.1

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Thompson, E., Dione, C., Indasi, V. S., Kilavi, M., Nkiaka, E., Talib, J., Visman, E., Adefisan, E. A., de Andrade, F., Ashong, J., Mwesigwa, J. B., Boult, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Diédhiou, T., Konte, O., Gudoshava, M., Kiptum, C., Amoah, R. K., Lamptey, B., Lawal, K. A., Muita, R., Nzekwu, R., Nying'uro, P., Ochieng, W., Olaniyan, E., Opoku, N. K., Endris, H. S., Segele, Z., Igri, P. M., Mwangi, E. and Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2021) Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services, 23. 100246. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246

Muita, R. R., Dougil, A. J., Mutemi, J., Aura, S., Graham, R., Awolala, D. O., Nkiaka, E., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Opijah, F. (2021) Understanding the role of user needs and perceptions related to sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts on farmers decisions in Kenya: a systematic review. Frontiers in climate, 3. 580556. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.580556

de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2021) Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (1). pp. 265-284. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1

Taye, M. T., Dyer, E., Charles, K. J. and Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 (2021) Potential predictability of the Ethiopian summer rains: understanding local variations and their implications for water management decisions. Science of the Total Environment, 755 (Part 1). 142604. ISSN 0048-9697 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142604

Lawal, K., A., Olaniyan, E., Ishiyaku, I., Hirons, L., C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Thompson, E., Talib, J., Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Ogungbenro, S. B., Gbode, E. I., Ajayi, V. O., Okogbue, E. C., Adefisan, E., A., Indasi, V., S., Youds, L., Nkiaka, E., Stone, D. A., Nzekwu, R., Folorunso, O., Oyedepo, J., A., New, M., G. and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2021) Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria. Frontiers in climate, 3. 712502. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.712502

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2019) The impact of air-sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 53 (11). pp. 7027-7044. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2018) The impact of Indian Ocean mean-state biases in climate models on the representation of the East African short rains. Journal of Climate, 31 (16). pp. 6611-6631. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0804.1

Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2018) The impact of air–sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10 (2). pp. 550-559. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001252

Hirons, L.C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Klingaman, N.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Woolnough, S.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2015) MetUM-GOML: a near-globally coupled atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8. pp. 363-379. ISSN 1991-962X doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-363-2015

Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Inness, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5795-6841, Vitart, F. and Bechtold, P. (2013) Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1417-1426. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2060

Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Inness, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5795-6841, Vitart, F. and Bechtold, P. (2013) Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1427-1444. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2059

Report

Visman, E., Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Todd, M., Mwangi, E., Dione, C., Gudoshava, M., Otieno, G., Ahiataku, M., Quaye, D., Lawal, K., Talib, J., Fletcher, J., Diop, A., Diedhiou, T., Ndiaye, D., Oloniyan, E., Nying'uro, P., Kiptum, C., Kilavi, M., Adefisan, E., Indasi, V., Waruru, S., Taylor, A. and Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, (2022) Institutionalising co-production of weather and climate services: Learning from the African SWIFT and ForPAc projects. GCRF African SWIFT Policy Briefs. Report. University of Leeds