Shen, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7116-1397, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2024) A forensic investigation of climate model biases in teleconnections: the case of the relationship between ENSO and the northern stratospheric polar vortex. Journal of Geophysical Research, 129 (19). e2024JD041252. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041252

Materia, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5635-2847, García, L. P., van Straaten, C., O, S., Mamalakis, A., Cavicchia, L., Coumou, D., de Luca, P., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Donat, M. (2024) Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: state of the art, challenges, and future perspectives. WIREs Climate Change. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.914

Sippel, S., Barnes, C., Cadiou, C., Fischer, E., Kew, S., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Philip, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Singh, J., Vautard, R. and Yiou, P. (2024) Could an extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5 (3). pp. 943-957. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Mahecha, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3031-613X, Bastos, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7368-7806, Bohn, F. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7328-1187, Eisenhauer, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0371-6720, Feilhauer, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5758-6303, Hickler, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4668-7552, Kalesse‐Los, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6699-7040, Migliavacca, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3546-8407, Otto, F. E. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-5917, Peng, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4071-0512, Sippel, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4510-4458, Tegen, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3700-3232, Weigelt, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6242-603X, Wendisch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4652-5561, Wirth, C., Al‐Halbouni, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2254-3914, Deneke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8595-533X, Doktor, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4761-3344, Dunker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7276-776X, Duveiller, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6471-8404, Ehrlich, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0860-8216, Foth, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1164-3576, García‐García, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1333-4774, Guerra, C. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4917-2105, Guimarães‐Steinicke, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7829-641X, Hartmann, H., Henning, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9267-7825, Herrmann, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7044-2101, Hu, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4223-5161, Ji, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8154-0508, Kattenborn, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7381-3828, Kolleck, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5499-8617, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Kühn, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1691-8249, Luttkus, M. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7307-0622, Maahn, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2580-9100, Mönks, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1603-1173, Mora, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3323-4490, Pöhlker, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6852-0756, Reichstein, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5736-1112, Rüger, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2371-4172, Sánchez‐Parra, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3585-3201, Schäfer, M., Stratmann, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1977-1158, Tesche, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0096-4785, Wehner, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0611-4466, Wieneke, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8729-9751, Winkler, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6574-4471, Wolf, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7848-3725, Zaehle, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5602-7956, Zscheischler, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629 and Quaas, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7057-194X (2024) Biodiversity and climate extremes: known interactions and research gaps. Earth's Future, 12 (6). e2023EF003963. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003963

Bommer, P. L., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Hedström, A., Bareeva, D. and Höhne, M. M.-C. (2024) Finding the right XAI method — a guide for the evaluation and ranking of explainable AI methods in climate science. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems. ISSN 2769-7525 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/aies-d-23-0074.1 (In Press)

Shaw, T. A., Arias, P. A., Collins, M., Coumou, D., Diedhiou, A., Garfinkel, C. I., Jain, S., Roxy, M. K., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Leung, L. R., Narsey, S., Martius, O., Seager, R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Sörensson, A. A., Stephenson, T., Taylor, M. and Wang, L. (2024) Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward. Frontiers in Climate, 6. 1391634. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634

Messori, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Lee, S. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0986-0093 and Wendt, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-4507 (2022) Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (4). pp. 1215-1236. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Agel, L., Barlow, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7612-3811, Furtado, J. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6580-2109, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Wendt, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-4507 (2022) The “polar vortex” winter of 2013/14. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (17). e2022JD036493. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036493

Karpechko, A. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0902-0414, Afargan‐Gerstman, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9169-2764, Butler, A. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3632-0925, Domeisen, D. I. V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-929X, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Lawrence, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0901-3839, Manzini, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9405-7838, Sigmond, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2191-9756, Simpson, I. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2915-1377 and Wu, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2054-5724 (2022) Northern hemisphere stratosphere‐troposphere circulation change in CMIP6 models: 1. inter‐model spread and scenario sensitivity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (18). e2022JD036992. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036992

Monnin, E., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Polichtchouk, I. (2022) The role of the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 42 (6). pp. 3448-3462. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7426

Ludescher, J., Martin, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1443-0891, Boers, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-9034, Bunde, A., Ciemer, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4092-3761, Fan, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1954-4641, Havlin, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9974-5920, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Kurths, J., Runge, J., Stolbova, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5574-3827, Surovyatkina, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5136-4988 and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2021) Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118 (47). e1922872118. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922872118

Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D. I. V., King, M. P., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Dobrynin, M., Aarnes, Ø., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Baehr, J. (2021) Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (738). pp. 2638-2656. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (12). E2247-E2263. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1

Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C.-F., Geiger, T. and Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 (2020) Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 313-324. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020

Lehmann, J., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Schauberger, B. and Wechsung, F. (2020) Potential for early forecast of Moroccan wheat yields based on climatic drivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (12). e2020GL087516. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087516

Matthias, V. and Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 (2020) The influence of stratospheric wave reflection on North American cold spells. Monthly Weather Review, 148 (4). pp. 1675-1690. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0339.1

Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D. (2020) Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (1). pp. 17-34. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020

Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338, de Wiljes, J., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Runge, J. (2020) Reconstructing regime-dependent causal relationships from observational time series. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30 (11). 113115. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0020538

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) The role of Barents-Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 715-730. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020

Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Zhang, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5893-2888, Francis, J., Jung, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2651-1293, Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8722-1927, Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8601-6024, Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-5658, Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1522-8919, Maslowski, W., Peings, Y., Pfeiffer, K., Rigor, I., Semmler, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2254-4901, Stroeve, J., Taylor, P. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8098-8447, Vavrus, S., Vihma, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6557-7084, Wang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2009-2275, Wendisch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4652-5561, Wu, Y. and Yoon, J. (2019) Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nature Climate Change, 10 (1). pp. 20-29. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y

Runge, J., Nowack, P., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Flaxman, S. and Sejdinovic, D. (2019) Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets. Science Advances, 5 (11). eaau4996. ISSN 2375-2548 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4996

Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Runge, J., Alessandri, A., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D. (2019) Long-lead statistical forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on causal precursors. Weather and Forecasting, 34 (5). pp. 1377-1394. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0002.1

Runge, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0629-1772, Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Mahecha, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3031-613X, Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E. H., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2553-1804, Zhang, K. and Zscheischler, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629 (2019) Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences. Nature Communications, 10 (1). 2553. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Cohen, J., Matthias, V., Runge, J. and Coumou, D. (2018) The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1 (1). ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Coumou, D., Agel, L., Barlow, M., Tziperman, E. and Cohen, J. (2018) More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (1). pp. 49-60. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Runge, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0629-1772 and Coumou, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2155-8495 (2017) Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (16). pp. 8592-8600. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074696

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Coumou, D., Donges, J. F. and Runge, J. (2016) Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation. Journal of Climate, 29 (11). pp. 4069-4081. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1