2014

Clements, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 (2014) Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation. International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (1). pp. 99-117. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.010

2013

Clements, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Galvao, A.B. (2013) Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation. International Journal of Forecasting, 29 (4). pp. 698-714. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.09.003

Clements, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Galvao, A.B. (2013) Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28 (3). pp. 458-477. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2274

Castle, J. L., Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Hendry, D. F. (2013) Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither? Journal of Econometrics, 177 (2). pp. 305-319. ISSN 0304-4076 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.015

2012

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Galvao, A. B. (2012) Improving real-time estimates of output and inflation gaps with multiple-vintage models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30 (4). pp. 554-562. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2012.707588

2010

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. European Economic Review, 54 (4). pp. 536-549. ISSN 0014-2921 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003

2009

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Galvao, A. B. (2009) Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24 (7). pp. 1187-1206. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1075

2008

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 (2008) Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines. International Journal of Forecasting, 24 (1). pp. 76-86. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.003

2005

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Hendry, D. F. (2005) Evaluating a model by forecast performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67 (Suppl.S1). pp. 931-956. ISSN 1468-0084 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00146.x

2004

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341, Franses, P. H. and Swanson, N. R. (2004) Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models. International Journal of Forecasting, 20 (2). pp. 169-183. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.10.004