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Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

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Gosling, S. N., Lowe, J. and McGregor, G. (2009) Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 6. 142010. ISSN 1755-1315

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1088/1755-1307/6/14/142010

Abstract/Summary

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Walker Institute for Climate System Research
ID Code:1624
Publisher:IOP

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