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The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Lu, R.-y., Li, C.-F., Yang, S.-H. and Dong, B. (2012) The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 5 (3). pp. 219-224. ISSN 1674-2834

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Abstract/Summary

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:29289
Publisher:Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science

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