Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection
Shelly, A., Xavier, P., Copsey, D., Johns, T., Rodríguez, J. M., Milton, S. and Klingaman, N. (2014) Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (15). pp. 5670-5677. ISSN 0094-8276
To link to this article DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059062
This study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialised 15 day hindcasts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmosphere control simulation (AGCM) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Results indicated that the coupled configuration (CGCM) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3-5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feed back on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air-sea coupling for the MJO.