Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales?
Rhodes, R. I., Shaffrey, L. C. and Gray, S. L. (2015) Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1114-1120. ISSN 1477-870X
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To link to this article DOI: 10.1002/qj.2418
A new generation of reanalysis products is currently being produced that provides global gridded atmospheric data spanning more than a century. Such data may be useful for characterising the observed long-term variability of extreme precipitation events, particularly in regions where spatial coverage of surface observations is limited, and in the pre-satellite era. An analysis of extreme precipitation events is performed over England and Wales, investigating the ability of Twentieth Century Reanalysis and ERA-Interim to represent extreme precipitation accumulations as recorded in the England and Wales Precipitation dataset on accumulation time-scales from 1 to 7 days. Significant correlations are found between daily precipitation accumulation observations and both reanalysis products. A hit-rate analysis indicates that the reanalyses have hit rates (as defined by an event above the 98th percentile) of approximately 40–65% for extreme events in both summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This suggests that both ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis are difficult to use for representing individual extreme precipitation events over England and Wales.