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Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius

Senapathi, D., Underwood, F. M., Black, E. C. L., Nicoll, M. A. C. and Norris, K. J. (2010) Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius. International Journal of Climatology, 30 (8). pp. 1164-1177. ISSN 0899-8418

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1002/joc.1953

Abstract/Summary

Global climate change and its impacts are being increasingly studied and precipitation trends are one of the measures of quantifying climate change especially in the tropics. This study uses daily rainfall data to determine if there are changes in the long-term trends in rainfall variability in the East Coast Mountains of Mauritius during the last few decades, and to investigate the factors influencing the trends in the inter-annual to inter-decadal rainfall variability. Statistical modelling has been used to investigate the trends in total seasonal rainfall, the number of rain days and the mean amount of rain per rainy days and the local, regional and large-scale factors that affect them on inter-annual to inter-decadal time scales. The strongest inter-decadal trend was found in the number of rain days for both rainfall seasons, and the other variables were found to have weak or insignificant trends. Both local factors, such as the surrounding sea surface temperatures and large-scale phenomena such as Indian Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation were found to influence rainfall patterns.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics > Applied Statistics
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > NCAS
Faculty of Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Biodiversity, Crops and Agroecosystems Division > Centre for Agri-environmental Research (CAER)
Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Soil Research Centre
ID Code:4529
Uncontrolled Keywords:Mauritius • rainfall trends • GAMs
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons

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