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Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study

Collins, M., Botzet, A., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O. H., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R. and Terray, L. (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1195-1203. ISSN 1520-0442

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Abstract/Summary

Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:5243
Uncontrolled Keywords:GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL CENTER COUPLED MODEL THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION SEA-ICE FLUX ADJUSTMENTS TIME SCALES OCEAN VARIABILITY ATMOSPHERE HEAT
Publisher:American Meteorological Society

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