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Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time-profiles that stabilise at 1.5C and 2.0C

Huntingford, C., Yang, H., Harper, A., Cox, P. M., Gedney, N., Burke, E. J., Lowe, J. A., Hayman, G., Collins, B. J., Smith, S. M. and Comyn-Platt, E. (2017) Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time-profiles that stabilise at 1.5C and 2.0C. Earth System Dynamics, 8 (3). pp. 617-626. ISSN 2190-4987

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To link to this item DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-617-2017

Abstract/Summary

The meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2015 committed parties to the Convention to hold the rise in global average temperature to well below 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels. It also committed the parties to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 C. This leads to two key questions. First,what extent of emission reductions will achieve either target? Second, what is the benefit of the reduced climate impacts by keeping warming at or below 1.5 C? To provide answers, climate model simulations need to follow trajectories consistent with these global temperature limits. It is useful to operate models in an inverse mode to make model-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration pathways consistent with the prescribed temperature profiles. Further inversion derives related emissions pathways for these concentrations. For this to happen, and to enable climate research centres to compare GHG concentrations and emissions estimates, common temperature trajectory scenarios are required. Here we define algebraic curves which asymptote to a stabilised limit, while also matching the magnitude and gradient of recent warming levels. The curves are deliberately parameter-sparse, needing prescription of just two parameters plus the final temperature. Yet despite this simplicity, they can allow for temperature overshoot and for generational changes where more effort to decelerate warming change is needed by future generations. The curves capture temperature profiles from the existing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) scenario projections by a range of different earth system models (ESMs), which have warming amounts towards the lower levels of those that society is discussing.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:70650
Publisher:European Geosciences Union

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