Accessibility navigation


Characteristics of Bay of Bengal monsoon depressions in the 21st Century

Rastogi, D., Ashfaq, M., Leung, L. R., Ghosh, S., Saha, A., Hodges, K. and Evans, K. (2018) Characteristics of Bay of Bengal monsoon depressions in the 21st Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (13). pp. 6637-6645. ISSN 0094-8276

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

1MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078756

Abstract/Summary

We show that 21st century increase in radiative forcing does not significantly impact the frequency of South Asian summer monsoon depressions (MDs) or their trajectories in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs). A significant relationship exists between the climatological occurrences of MDs and the strength of the background upper (lower) tropospheric meridional (zonal) winds and tropospheric moisture in the core genesis region of MDs. Likewise, there is a strong relationship between the strength of the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the GCMs and the trajectories of MDs over land. While monsoon dynamics progressively weakens in the future, atmospheric moisture exhibits a strong increase, limiting the impact of changes in dynamics on the frequency of MDs. Moreover, the weakening of meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the future is substantially weaker than its inherent underestimation in the GCMs. Our results also indicate that future increases in the extreme wet events are dominated by nondepression day occurrences, which may render the monsoon extremes less predictable in the future.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:78092
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation