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A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

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Wade, A. J., Black, E. C. L., Brayshaw, D. J., El-Bastawesy, M., Holmes, P. A. C., Butterfield, D., Nuimat, S. and Jamjoum, K. (2010) A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 368 (1931). pp. 5151-5172. ISSN 1364-503X

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0207

Abstract/Summary

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Faculty of Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > NCAS
Faculty of Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Earth Systems Science
ID Code:8197
Uncontrolled Keywords:climate change; water resources; hydrology; groundwater; Jordan
Publisher:The Royal Society

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