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Uncertainty in the evolution of climate feedback traced to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Lin, Y.-J., Hwang, Y.-T., Ceppi, P. and Gregory, J. (2019) Uncertainty in the evolution of climate feedback traced to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (21). pp. 12331-12339. ISSN 1944-8007

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083084

Abstract/Summary

In most coupled climate models, effective climate sensitivity increases for a few decades following an abrupt CO2 increase. The change in the climate feedback parameter between the first 20 years and the subsequent 130 years is highly model dependent. In this study, we suggest that the intermodel spread of changes in climate feedback can be partially traced to the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Models with stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation recovery tend to project more amplified warming in the Northern Hemisphere a few decades after a quadrupling of CO2. Tropospheric stability then decreases as the Northern Hemisphere gets warmer, which leads to an increase in both the lapse‐rate and shortwave cloud feedbacks. Our results suggest that constraining future ocean circulation changes will be necessary for accurate climate sensitivity projections.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:86746
Publisher:AGU

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