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Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions

Luo, F., Wilcox, L. J., Dong, B., Su, Q., Chen, W., Dunstone, N., Li, S. and Gao, Y. (2020) Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (3). 034013. ISSN 1748-9326

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b34

Abstract/Summary

This study assesses near-term future changes in temperature extremes over China and Europe in scenarios with two very different anthropogenic aerosol (AA) pathways from 2016 to 2049: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR), and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE), both with greenhouses gas forcing following RCP 4.5. Simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model HadGEM3-GC2 show that there is an increase in hot extremes and a decrease in cold extremes relative to the present day (1995-2014) over China and Europe in both scenarios. However, the magnitude of the changes in both hot and cold extremes depends strongly on the AA pathway. The AA reduction in MTFR amplifies the changes in temperature extremes relative to CLE, and accounts for 40% and 30% of the projected changes in temperature extremes relative to present day over China and Europe respectively. Thus, this study suggests that future and current policy decisions about AA emissions have the potential for a large near-term impact on temperature extremes.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:88537
Publisher:Institute of Physics

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