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Event-based storylines to address climate risk

Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T.G., van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W., Martius, O., Slingo, J. and Zscheischler, J. (2020) Event-based storylines to address climate risk. Earth's Future. ISSN 2328-4277 (In Press)

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001783

Abstract/Summary

The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:94766
Publisher:Wiley

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