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Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C.I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E.-P., Noguchi, S., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L., Richter, J. H., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Son, S.-W. and Thompson, D. W. J. (2022) Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 2601-2623. ISSN 1680-7316

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To link to this item DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

Abstract/Summary

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:103843
Publisher:EGU

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