Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C.I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E.-P., Noguchi, S., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L., Richter, J. H., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Son, S.-W. and Thompson, D. W. J. (2022) Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 2601-2623. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

Abstract/Summary

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/103843
Identification Number/DOI	10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	EGU
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item