Abstract/Summary

Typhoon(TY) Haiyan was one of the most intense and highly destructive tropical cyclones (TCs) to affect the Philippines. As such, it is regarded as a baseline for extreme TC hazards. Improving the simulation of such TCs will not only improve the forecasting of intense TCs but will also be essential in understanding the potential sensitivity of future intense TCs with climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects of model configuration in simulating TY Haiyan using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by systematically altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface fluxoptions, and spectral nudging. In addition to using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-analysis 5th Generation (ERA5) single high resolution realization as initial and boundary conditions, we also used four of the ten lower resolution ERA5 Data Assimilation System (EDA) ensemble members as initial and boundary conditions. Results indicate a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes, with a trade-off between using Kain-Fritsch and Tiedtke schemes that have not been mentioned in past studies of TCs in the Philippines. The Tiedtke scheme simulates the track better (witha lower mean Direct Positional Error(DPE) of 33 km), while the Kain-Fritsch scheme produces stronger intensities (by 15hPa minimum sea level pressure). Spectral nudging also resulted in a reduction in the mean DPE by 20 km and varying the surface flux options resulted in the improvement of the simulated maximum sustained winds by up to 10 ms-1. Simulations using the EDA members initial and boundary conditions revealed low sensitivity to the initial and boundary conditions, having less spread than the simulations using different parameterization schemes. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in the track and intensity of simulating intense tropical cyclones.