Abstract/Summary

The potential changes in the characteristics and damage potential of three of the most damaging tropical cyclone (TC) events (Haiyan, Bopha, Mangkhut) in the Philippines have been simulated using the pseudo global warming (PGW) technique. Simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 5km resolution with cumulus parameterization (5kmCU) and 3km without cumulus parameterization (3kmNoCU), with PGW deltas derived from a selection of the CMIP6 models. We found that re-forecasting the three TCs under future warming leads to more intense TCs, with changes in maximum wind of 4%, 3%, and 14% for the 5kmCU runs, and 14%, 4 %, and 12% for the 3kmNoCU runs of Typhoon Haiyan, Bopha, and Mangkhut, respectively. The changes in track, translation speed, and size are relatively small. The TC cases have a higher impact potential in the future, as expressed by the cyclone damage potential index, ranging from ~1% to up to 37% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Based on the pre-industrial runs, climate change has had, so far, only a weak influence on TC intensity and not much influence on track, translation speed, and size. Simulations without convective parameterization show similar changes in the sign of the projected TC intensity response, but different signals of change in translation speed and size.