Accessibility navigation


The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts

Doane-Solomon, R., Befort, D. J., Camp, J., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Weisheimer, A. (2023) The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric Science Letters. e1190. ISSN 1530-261X

[img]
Preview
Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

3MB
[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only

1MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1002/asl.1190

Abstract/Summary

This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:111631
Publisher:Wiley

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation