Accessibility navigation

Sensitivity of model estimates of CME propagation and arrival time to inner boundary conditions

James, L. A., Scott, C. J. ORCID:, Barnard, L. A. ORCID:, Owens, M. J. ORCID:, Lang, M. S. ORCID: and Jones, S. R. (2023) Sensitivity of model estimates of CME propagation and arrival time to inner boundary conditions. Space Weather, 21 (4). e2022SW003289. ISSN 1542-7390

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2022SW003289


Accurately forecasting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is important to enabling mitigation of the associated space weather risks to society. This is only possible with accurate modeling of the event. To do so, we must understand the propagation of a CME through the heliosphere and quantify the performance of models through comparison with spacecraft observations. For the 12 December 2008 Earth-directed CME event, we compute ensembles using the HUXt solar wind model to analyze CME distortion with a structured solar wind and explore hindcast arrival time error (ATE). By highlighting the impact CME shape has on Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) values, we show that time-elongation profiles of fronts captured by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments onboard NASA's STEREO mission match those of the modeled CME nose and flank and can therefore be used to infer details of the longitudinal extent of the CME. We then show that accounting for CME distortion is important to enable accurate estimates of the CME arrival at Earth. This can be achieved by either using observations of multiple features in HI data to infer CME evolution or mapping the solar wind back to a lower inner boundary to allow CMEs to be distorted close to the Sun. For the event studied we show that these approaches resulted in reduced RMSEs of 0.73° and 0.64° with an ATE of 1 hour and 3 hours respectively.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:111758
Publisher:American Geophysical Union


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation