Abstract/Summary

Cut-off Lows are slow-moving mid-latitude storms that are detached from the main westerly flow and are often harbingers of heavy and persistent rainfall. The assessment of Cut-off Lows in climate models is relatively limited, in fact, there are no studies conducted on the future changes of Cut14 off Lows within climate models. Given the importance of Cut-off Lows in leading to severe hazards, here we study them in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6’s worst-case future simulations (SSP5-8.5). Most (80%) of the models show that Cut-off Lows with high intensity and longer lifetimes are projected to become more frequent in spring over the land regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Such an increase in Cut-off Low frequency could substantially increase related potential hazards. An increase in Cut-off Low propagation velocity, however, may partly offset this increase in hazard. Lastly, projected changes in the jet stream with possible dynamical linkages to Cut-off Lows corroborate the findings of this study.